Western Tanks to Ukraine?

By: Marco Dorazio

Created Janurary 31st, 2023

This past Thursday, Germany announced its plans to approve and send 112 Leopard 2 tanks from its own inventory over an unspecified period of time. The US also approved a package of 31 M1A2 Abrams tanks. Poland and a number of other European countries are expected to follow in the coming months with other packages of tanks. Poland has already offered its home-developed PT-91 Twardy, which is basically a souped-up T-72M1. With all these tanks pouring in from other countries, it is crucial to analyze what kind of impact they will have on the Ukrainian conflict.

From the beginning, there have been doubts about the effectiveness of the Abrams compared to its performance in previous wars. During the 1991 invasion of Iraq, Abrams tanks were able to destroy hundreds of older Russian model tanks without losing any Abrams to direct fire. However, the conflict in Ukraine is vastly different than the one in Iraq. Unlike the US, Ukraine does not have the same kind of combined arms warfare, and it cannot simply call in an airstrike whenever they need one. This means that Ukraine should not rely solely on these tanks to resolve the conflict. In the conflict in Yemen, Houthi rebels were able to take out a number of Saudi-supplied Abrams because Yemeni commanders brought these tanks into combat without proper infantry or air support. It is possible that the same may happen in Ukraine if they are not used in conjunction with other military assets.

The success of these tanks will also depend on how well they are maintained and how well-trained the Ukrainian military is in using them. Tanks require constant maintenance and upgrades, and without proper upkeep, they may become ineffective on the battlefield. Additionally, the tanks must be used in conjunction with other military assets such as infantry and air support for maximum effectiveness. The Ukrainian military will need to be trained to effectively use these tanks, especially since the tanks in their army before the war consisted solely of three-person crewed Soviet tanks. These tanks do not require a loader, which is a crew member that nearly every Western tank has. Training Ukrainian servicemen will take additional weeks after the tanks are sent.

On the other hand, the European Leopard 2 is a powerhouse in its own right. When Germany first announced the possibility of sending tanks, many were led to believe that they would be sending the older and weaker Leopard 2A4 variant. However, they are sending the nearly top-of-the-line Leopard 2A6, which differs from the 2A5 due to its longer gun barrel. It has nearly 2250mm of composite armor in its turret cheeks and a massive APDFS shatter zone on the UFP. This tank should outperform all of its opponents on the battlefield. However, like the Abrams, it is important that Ukraine keep this tank within a closely supported net of both air support and infantry. Leopards and Abrams are both much larger and heavier than Soviet tanks, and urban combat or the transportation of these tanks could prove to be more difficult than expected.

US M1 Abrams vs a T-72 in terms of size.

Furthermore, it is important to consider the geopolitical implications of these tanks being sent to Ukraine. Sending these tanks could potentially escalate the conflict and bring more nations into the conflict. The situation in Ukraine is already tense, and the addition of powerful tanks could exacerbate the situation. It is crucial that the international community closely monitor the situation and work towards a peaceful resolution to the conflict. Ultimately, the effectiveness of these tanks in Ukraine will depend on a number of factors, including maintenance, training, and integration with other military assets.

Looking at the Numbers: How does the Leopard 2A6 stack up against Russia's most commonly fielded tank. 

The Russian-made T-72 is by far the most commonly used tank in the war by a margin. Let's look at how the Leopard 2A6 can compare to these tanks based on quantifiable data and statistical information gathered from various sources. 

Armor Protection: The Leopard 2A6 features advanced composite armor, which provides a high level of protection against various types of threats, including kinetic energy penetrator, explosive reactive armor, and top-attack weapons. The T-72, on the other hand, has thicker steel armor, but is less effective against modern threats. According to tests, the Leopard 2A6 has an armor protection factor of 500-550 mm RHA (equivalent), while the T-72 has an armor protection factor of 400-450 mm RHA (equivalent).

Firepower:

The Leopard 2A6 is equipped with a 120mm smoothbore cannon that can fire a variety of ammunition types, including high-explosive, armor-piercing, and guided missiles. The T-72, on the other hand, is equipped with a 125mm smoothbore cannon that is less accurate and has a slower rate of fire. According to tests, the Leopard 2A6 can fire up to 8 rounds per minute, while the T-72 can fire up to 6 rounds per minute. Keep in mind that the T-72 uses an auto-loader which does not get tired while the Leopard 2 uses some persons arms. 

Mobility:

The Leopard 2A6 is known for its high mobility and excellent cross-country performance, thanks to its hydraulic suspension system and powerful diesel engine. The T-72, on the other hand, has a lower power-to-weight ratio and is less agile. According to tests, the Leopard 2A6 can reach a top speed of 72 km/h on the road and 60 km/h off-road, while the T-72 can reach a top speed of 60 km/h on road and 50 km/h off-road.

Russian tanks in Ukraine have so far been outmatched by Ukraine's currently abundant supply of foreign anti-tank weapons. Ukrainian tanks and Russian tanks are virtually the same due to the fact that most Ukraine and Russian tanks come from distributed stockpiles formed as the Soviet Union collapsed. Due to this, neither party has yet to achieve a total advantage over the other in tank combat. Although this war is having significant losses for either side. According to the most recent OSINT data, Russia has lost at least 1981 tanks since the beginning of the war. Ranging from the oldest T-62 Obr. 1967 to the advanced and modern T-90M. According to Russian officials, Russia claims to have around 10,000 tanks in inventory.  But of which (and this is something no Russian official wants to talk about) only 3,300 are operational. The other 6,000 tanks sit around in Siberian fields rusting away for decades.

Example of Russian T-62 tanks in storage. Much of the added armor has been scrapped and sold off or used as replacements for other tanks, leaving these tanks unusable. 

In fact, it was a shock to the international community when images of Russia sauntering into Ukraine with T-62M tanks. This is literally a museum relic! Russia over-inflates the number of tanks they have to threaten western countries. They seem to be one big paper tiger. Meanwhile, the US and its allies spend much, much more on storing equipment in indoor storage facilities for long periods of time. You will only see them in rows outdoors when either they are old variants not needed for service or only being stored for short periods of time. By the end of the war, I’d expect the Russian tank industry to be crippled. The Uralvagonzavod tank factory, the largest in Russia, was shut down only months after the war began due to embargoes on chip technology. If Russia continues losing tanks at its current rate, then we could see nearly all modern Russian tanks gone in the next couple of years. But hopefully, the war is resolved before that time. 

The important message here is to understand that Western tanks can play a major role in decisive offensives against Russia but only if they are organized carefully and not used liberally. Even more importantly, the US has the ability to send hundreds more tanks to Ukraine. So it is not out of the question to see these tanks being sent in the future if the preliminary 31 Abrams are not destroyed instantly. Russian tank numbers are depleting in this war of attrition and now is the time to send Ukraine the weapons it needs to slow the grueling Russian advance.