Why Would Germany Not Want to Send Tanks?

German Tank Debate: What Role Do American Armament Interests Play? Why is Germany Hesitant to Play the Tank Game?

Ukraine needs to have a supply of Western main battle tanks (MBTs) in order to continue defending itself against the Russian attack. However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hesitating and under pressure from NATO Allies. When asked, he replied with, "There are good reasons for the delivery and good reasons against it. All arguments would have to be carefully weighed."

Since the beginning of the war, Western MBTs have been in question due to the large reserve of them and the strategic advantage it would give to Ukraine if they were delivered. There are about 2,300 M1 Abrams tanks in reserve in the US. Many of these are non-upgraded versions of the plain M1 model. These tanks possess a modern standard 120mm smoothbore cannon, composite armor, and a relatively advanced fire control system (FCS) and second-generation thermal imaging systems.

The Abrams can outrange the T-72's 2A46 125mm smoothbore as the barrel PSI is much higher than its Russian counterpart.

Germany has put the US in the spotlight again by stating that they would only send tanks if the US did first. Personally, I find this ridiculous when you think about the total amount of aid sent by Europe combined versus the US. You would think a developed continent of countries under threat by an ever-expanding hegemonic Russia would be more inclined to send aid to Ukraine, but I guess not. American Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin appeared in front of the German press after meeting with top NATO commanders. He was asked whether Germany was sufficiently involved as a leading European power. Austin couldn't help cracking a smile and replied that "Germany is doing enough and is standing by as a reliable ally." But they aren't doing enough... without tanks, Ukraine cannot successfully defend itself.

The war in Ukraine offers the United States a special opportunity, if countries rid themselves of aging Soviet and German tech, to oust the market competition. The military-industrial complex (MIC) has long sought after the defense contracts of certain European countries, and this is a key reason why Germany is reluctant to give approval to send their equipment. But to counter this argument, I'd say that it is up to Rheinmetall and other German weapons manufacturers to provide their clients with a steady supply of weaponry. After all, many of Germany's clients prefer Germany as their supplier due to their relatively close location.

And so this is the issue. If Scholz gives in to US and NATO demands, he makes the potential of US companies sweeping in and stealing defense contracts. But if he does not give in, he risks Ukraine losing more territory, ironic, hurting German interests more directly.

Unlike the Abrams, Germany is not able to reliably replace Leopard 2 losses in the Ukraine conflict. After slashing their defense budget, manufacturing even one batch of Leopard 2s can take up to two years... The German tank industry currently has an excellent reputation abroad. With the introduction of the Leopard 2, Krauss-Maffei Wegman and Rheinmetall have arguably built the best tank in the world, but also one of the most expensive (7 to 8 million euros for the 2A7 variant). This provides another potential drawback for countries planning to replace any losses after donating equipment.

Recent History of U.S Arms to Europe:

The US has been trying to intensify its arms sales in Europe. The deal seems to be good for both sides, American weapons are among the best in the world. In January 2022, the Americans agreed with Croatia to deliver 89 used Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and 22 as spare parts. Poland also seems to be shying away from the German military complex. After initially purchasing 200 Leopard 2's, Warsaw now seems to be harshly coitizing the German policy. Infact, Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blazcazak announced that they would by 250 new and 116 used M1 Abrams main battle tanks in the USA for a price for 8.85 billion euros. Poland also signed a contract to buy 1,000 K-2 MBTs from South Korea. The K-2 is also one of the best tanks in the world. This is even more of a problem when you realize that Germany offered Poland a tank contract, but got denied...

It is clear to Poland now that Germany is no longer a strategic arms supplier, but rather a neighbor. According to the Neue Burcher Beitung, anonymous defense contractors say that the US is offering used tanks as replacements from its own stocks and buying long-term industrial partnerships with countries that could supply the Leopard 2 to Ukraine.

Recently, Scholz has finally approved Poland to send its Leopard 2s to Ukraine. While this debacle may seem black and white at first, when you read more, you begin to sympathize with the shrinking German weapons industry trying to keep its head above water during an unwinnable situation.

This entire situation has to do with German security policy, I will write an article about this soon enough.